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2016 Senate · WA

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,451 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 59% · Republican 37%

D+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.01% · Republican 40.99%

D+18.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 59 − 37 = 22.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.013 − 40.987 = 18.026
  3. Signed miss = 22.00 − (18.026) = 3.974
  4. Absolute miss = |3.974| = 3.974

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48907, race ID 72 (538 database).