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2016 Governor · WV

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 472 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 45%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.09% · Republican 42.30%

D+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 45 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.087 − 42.304 = 6.783
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (6.783) = -15.783
  4. Absolute miss = |-15.783| = 15.783

The poll overstated the Republican by 15.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48908, race ID 59 (538 database).