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2016 President · WV

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 472 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 29% · Republican 56%

R+27.0

The certified result

Democrat 26.43% · Republican 68.50%

R+42.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29 − 56 = -27.00
  2. Actual margin = 26.426 − 68.499 = -42.073
  3. Signed miss = -27.00 − (-42.073) = 15.073
  4. Absolute miss = |15.073| = 15.073

The poll overstated the Democrat by 15.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48908, race ID 651 (538 database).