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2016 President · CA

Leger · fieldwork ended 2016-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 401 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 35%

D+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.73% · Republican 31.62%

D+30.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 35 = 23.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.726 − 31.617 = 30.109
  3. Signed miss = 23.00 − (30.109) = -7.109
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.109| = 7.109

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48913, race ID 606 (538 database).