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2016 President · NV

Leger · fieldwork ended 2016-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 373 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 42%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.92% · Republican 45.50%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 42 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.918 − 45.501 = 2.417
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (2.417) = -2.417
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.417| = 2.417

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48914, race ID 635 (538 database).