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2016 President · national

TIPP Insights · fieldwork ended 2016-11-06 (2 days before the election) · 1,107 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41.2% · Republican 42.7%

R+1.5

The certified result

Democrat 48.00% · Republican 45.81%

D+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.2 − 42.7 = -1.50
  2. Actual margin = 47.997 − 45.815 = 2.182
  3. Signed miss = -1.50 − (2.182) = -3.681
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.681| = 3.681

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48916, race ID 94 (538 database).