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2016 House · NY-3

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2016-10-31 (8 days before the election) · 614 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 40%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.98% · Republican 41.31%

D+11.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 40 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.975 − 41.311 = 11.664
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (11.664) = -4.664
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.664| = 4.664

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 49206, race ID 6030 (538 database).