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2016 House · MN-2

GBAO · fieldwork ended 2016-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 40%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.16% · Republican 46.95%

R+1.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 40 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.157 − 46.954 = -1.797
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (-1.797) = 6.796
  4. Absolute miss = |6.796| = 6.796

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 49210, race ID 5984 (538 database).