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2016 House · NY-22

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 643 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 38%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.88% · Republican 40.67%

R+3.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 38 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.884 − 40.673 = -3.789
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-3.789) = -0.211
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.211| = 0.211

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 49224, race ID 6049 (538 database).