Skip to content

2016 House · NY-19

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2016-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 1,218 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 41%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.95% · Republican 44.18%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 41 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.946 − 44.180 = -3.234
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-3.234) = 6.234
  4. Absolute miss = |6.234| = 6.234

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 49225, race ID 6046 (538 database).