2017 Governor · VA
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2017-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 1,056 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 42%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.89% · Republican 44.98%
D+8.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 42 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 53.894 − 44.977 = 8.917
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (8.917) = 0.083
- Absolute miss = |0.083| = 0.083
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50518, race ID 1214 (538 database).