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2017 Governor · VA

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2017-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 875 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 45%

even

The certified result

Democrat 53.89% · Republican 44.98%

D+8.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 45 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.894 − 44.977 = 8.917
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (8.917) = -8.917
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.917| = 8.917

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.9 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50520, race ID 1214 (538 database).