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2016 Governor · MO

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 871 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 44%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.57% · Republican 51.14%

R+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.570 − 51.137 = -5.567
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-5.567) = 8.567
  4. Absolute miss = |8.567| = 8.567

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50538, race ID 50 (538 database).