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2017 Governor · NJ

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2017-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 611 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 32%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.03% · Republican 41.89%

D+14.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 32 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.026 − 41.891 = 14.135
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (14.135) = -0.135
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.135| = 0.135

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50543, race ID 1215 (538 database).