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2017 Governor · NJ

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2017-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 1,049 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 37%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.03% · Republican 41.89%

D+14.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 37 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.026 − 41.891 = 14.135
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (14.135) = 5.865
  4. Absolute miss = |5.865| = 5.865

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50546, race ID 1215 (538 database).