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2017 Governor · NJ

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2017-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 35%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.03% · Republican 41.89%

D+14.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 35 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.026 − 41.891 = 14.135
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (14.135) = 0.865
  4. Absolute miss = |0.865| = 0.865

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50547, race ID 1215 (538 database).