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2016 Governor · OR

Clout Research · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 928 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 43%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.62% · Republican 43.45%

D+7.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 43 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.617 − 43.453 = 7.164
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (7.164) = -5.164
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.164| = 5.164

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50552, race ID 55 (538 database).