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2017 House · GA-6

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2017-06-15 (5 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49.7% · Republican 48%

D+1.7

The certified result

Democrat 48.22% · Republican 51.78%

R+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.7 − 48 = 1.70
  2. Actual margin = 48.217 − 51.783 = -3.566
  3. Signed miss = 1.70 − (-3.566) = 5.266
  4. Absolute miss = |5.266| = 5.266

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50563, race ID 1762 (538 database).