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2017 House · GA-6

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2017-06-17 (3 days before the election) · 1,100 respondents · IVR/Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 48.59% · Republican 50.46%

R+1.9

The certified result

Democrat 48.22% · Republican 51.78%

R+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.59 − 50.46 = -1.87
  2. Actual margin = 48.217 − 51.783 = -3.566
  3. Signed miss = -1.87 − (-3.566) = 1.696
  4. Absolute miss = |1.696| = 1.696

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50571, race ID 1762 (538 database).