2017 Senate · AL
Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2017-12-02 (10 days before the election) · 1,276 respondents · IVR/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 44%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.97% · Republican 48.34%
D+1.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 44 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 49.966 − 48.340 = 1.626
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (1.626) = 2.374
- Absolute miss = |2.374| = 2.374
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50678, race ID 95 (538 database).