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2016 House · NJ-7

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2016-10-21 (18 days before the election) · 982 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 45%

even

The certified result

Democrat 43.12% · Republican 54.08%

R+11.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 45 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.124 − 54.084 = -10.960
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-10.960) = 10.960
  4. Absolute miss = |10.960| = 10.960

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.0 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51261, race ID 6019 (538 database).