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2012 House · HI-2

MRG Research · fieldwork ended 2012-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 562 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 73% · Republican 15%

D+58.0

The certified result

Democrat 80.54% · Republican 19.46%

D+61.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 73 − 15 = 58.00
  2. Actual margin = 80.543 − 19.457 = 61.086
  3. Signed miss = 58.00 − (61.086) = -3.085
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.085| = 3.085

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51312, race ID 5025 (538 database).