Skip to content

2012 House · MT-1

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2012-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 51%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.72% · Republican 53.25%

R+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 51 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.719 − 53.251 = -10.532
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-10.532) = -0.467
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.467| = 0.467

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51340, race ID 5129 (538 database).