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2012 House · CA-52

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2012-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 628 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 51.18% · Republican 48.82%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.181 − 48.819 = 2.362
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (2.362) = -2.363
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.363| = 2.363

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51341, race ID 4968 (538 database).