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2012 House · NY-11

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2012-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 627 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 52%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.85% · Republican 42.39%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 52 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.846 − 42.388 = -1.542
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-1.542) = -16.458
  4. Absolute miss = |-16.458| = 16.458

The poll overstated the Republican by 16.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51345, race ID 5164 (538 database).