Skip to content

2012 House · NY-19

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2012-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 649 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 48%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.33% · Republican 40.10%

R+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 48 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.330 − 40.098 = -0.768
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-0.768) = -4.231
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.231| = 4.231

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51345, race ID 5172 (538 database).