2012 House · NV-4
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2012-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 648 respondents · IVR/Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 47%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.11% · Republican 42.11%
D+8.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 47 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 50.106 − 42.106 = 8.000
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (8.000) = -13.000
- Absolute miss = |-13.000| = 13.000
The poll overstated the Republican by 13.0 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51347, race ID 5136 (538 database).