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2012 House · IL-13

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2012-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 1,360 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45.1% · Republican 50.2%

R+5.1

The certified result

Democrat 46.21% · Republican 46.55%

R+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.1 − 50.2 = -5.10
  2. Actual margin = 46.209 − 46.549 = -0.340
  3. Signed miss = -5.10 − (-0.340) = -4.760
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.760| = 4.760

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51349, race ID 5040 (538 database).