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2012 House · FL-18

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 631 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.28% · Republican 49.70%

D+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.280 − 49.704 = 0.576
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.576) = 0.424
  4. Absolute miss = |0.424| = 0.424

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51350, race ID 5000 (538 database).