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2012 House · CA-7

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 792 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 51.68% · Republican 48.32%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.682 − 48.318 = 3.364
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (3.364) = -3.363
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.363| = 3.363

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51351, race ID 4923 (538 database).