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2012 House · WA-1

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2012-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 610 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 44%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.94% · Republican 46.06%

D+7.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.936 − 46.064 = 7.872
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (7.872) = -4.872
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.872| = 4.872

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51358, race ID 5310 (538 database).