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2012 House · MN-6

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2012-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 51%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.26% · Republican 50.47%

R+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 51 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.259 − 50.468 = -1.209
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-1.209) = -4.790
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.790| = 4.790

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51368, race ID 5114 (538 database).