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2012 House · MN-8

Rasmussen Reports · fieldwork ended 2012-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 43%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.28% · Republican 45.39%

D+8.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 43 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.282 − 45.388 = 8.894
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (8.894) = -1.894
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.894| = 1.894

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51368, race ID 5116 (538 database).