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2012 House · OH-16

OnMessage Inc. · fieldwork ended 2012-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 51%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.95% · Republican 52.05%

R+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 51 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.953 − 52.047 = -4.094
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-4.094) = -5.906
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.906| = 5.906

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51546, race ID 5210 (538 database).