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2012 House · MN-2

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2012-10-17 (20 days before the election) · 565 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 49%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.85% · Republican 54.01%

R+8.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 49 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.847 − 54.007 = -8.160
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-8.160) = 0.160
  4. Absolute miss = |0.160| = 0.160

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51558, race ID 5110 (538 database).