Skip to content

2010 House · AR-1

Impact Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 42%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.48% · Republican 51.79%

R+8.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 42 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.478 − 51.787 = -8.309
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-8.309) = 10.309
  4. Absolute miss = |10.309| = 10.309

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51648, race ID 4477 (538 database).