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2010 House · AZ-3

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 655 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 44%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.15% · Republican 52.24%

R+11.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 44 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.145 − 52.236 = -11.091
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-11.091) = 13.092
  4. Absolute miss = |13.092| = 13.092

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51665, race ID 4471 (538 database).