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2010 House · CA-47

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 39%

even

The certified result

Democrat 52.98% · Republican 39.27%

D+13.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 39 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.975 − 39.268 = 13.707
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (13.707) = -13.708
  4. Absolute miss = |-13.708| = 13.708

The poll overstated the Republican by 13.7 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51689, race ID 4527 (538 database).