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2010 House · CO-1

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 698 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 43.8% · Republican 36.4%

D+7.4

The certified result

Democrat 67.42% · Republican 28.76%

D+38.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.8 − 36.4 = 7.40
  2. Actual margin = 67.424 − 28.759 = 38.665
  3. Signed miss = 7.40 − (38.665) = -31.265
  4. Absolute miss = |-31.265| = 31.265

The poll overstated the Republican by 31.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51691, race ID 4534 (538 database).