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2010 House · CO-3

PSB Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 47%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.76% · Republican 50.10%

R+4.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 47 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.755 − 50.100 = -4.345
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-4.345) = 0.345
  4. Absolute miss = |0.345| = 0.345

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51693, race ID 4536 (538 database).