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2010 House · FL-8

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 801 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 48%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.22% · Republican 56.11%

R+17.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 48 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.215 − 56.113 = -17.898
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-17.898) = 10.898
  4. Absolute miss = |10.898| = 10.898

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51719, race ID 4554 (538 database).