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2010 House · FL-22

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 47%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.64% · Republican 54.36%

R+8.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 47 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.636 − 54.364 = -8.728
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-8.728) = 5.727
  4. Absolute miss = |5.727| = 5.727

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51724, race ID 4568 (538 database).