Skip to content

2010 House · FL-25

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2010-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 700 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 44%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.59% · Republican 52.15%

R+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 44 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.589 − 52.147 = -9.558
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-9.558) = 8.558
  4. Absolute miss = |8.558| = 8.558

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51730, race ID 4571 (538 database).