2010 House · GA-7
Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2010-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 442 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 30% · Republican 60%
R+30.0
The certified result
Democrat 32.93% · Republican 67.07%
R+34.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 30 − 60 = -30.00
- Actual margin = 32.930 − 67.070 = -34.140
- Signed miss = -30.00 − (-34.140) = 4.141
- Absolute miss = |4.141| = 4.141
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51737, race ID 4578 (538 database).