Skip to content

2010 House · GA-8

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2010-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 442 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 39.1% · Republican 52.5%

R+13.4

The certified result

Democrat 47.30% · Republican 52.70%

R+5.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.1 − 52.5 = -13.40
  2. Actual margin = 47.303 − 52.697 = -5.394
  3. Signed miss = -13.40 − (-5.394) = -8.006
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.006| = 8.006

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51738, race ID 4579 (538 database).