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2010 House · GA-8

PSB Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 50%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.30% · Republican 52.70%

R+5.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 50 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.303 − 52.697 = -5.394
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-5.394) = -7.606
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.606| = 7.606

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51739, race ID 4579 (538 database).