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2010 Governor · HI

MRG Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 1,181 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49.5% · Republican 44.5%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.22% · Republican 41.12%

D+17.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.5 − 44.5 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.219 − 41.120 = 17.099
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (17.099) = -12.099
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.099| = 12.099

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51744, race ID 1283 (538 database).