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2010 Senate · HI

MRG Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 1,181 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 62.7% · Republican 30.6%

D+32.1

The certified result

Democrat 74.81% · Republican 21.57%

D+53.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 62.7 − 30.6 = 32.10
  2. Actual margin = 74.809 − 21.571 = 53.238
  3. Signed miss = 32.10 − (53.238) = -21.137
  4. Absolute miss = |-21.137| = 21.137

The poll overstated the Republican by 21.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51744, race ID 1516 (538 database).