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2010 House · HI-1

MRG Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 620 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 45%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.23% · Republican 46.77%

D+6.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 45 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.228 − 46.772 = 6.456
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (6.456) = -1.455
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.455| = 1.455

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51744, race ID 4585 (538 database).