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2010 Governor · HI

Ward Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 608 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 43%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.22% · Republican 41.12%

D+17.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 43 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.219 − 41.120 = 17.099
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (17.099) = -9.099
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.099| = 9.099

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51745, race ID 1283 (538 database).